Two weeks ago, I wrote a couple of posts about the strange reboot of MH370’s satcom system that occurred shortly after the plane disappeared from primary radar, and asked if anyone could come up with a reasonable explanation. I drew attention in particular to the left AC bus, which the satcom equipment is connected to. This bus can be electrically isolated using controls located in the cockpit, and this appears to be the only way to recycle the satcom without leaving the flight deck. I suggested that there might be some other piece of equipment that the perpetrator wanted to turn off and on again by using the left AC bus, thereby causing the satcom to be recycled as an unintended side effect.
The readers rose to the occasion. Gysbreght pointed out that paragraph 1.11.2 of Factual Information states that “The SSCVR [Solid State Cockpit Voice Recorder] operates any time power is available on the Left AC transfer bus. This bus is not powered from batteries or the Ram Air Turbine (RAT).”
This is an incredibly interesting observation. Reader Oz fleshed out Gysbreght’s insight, writing to me via email:
We could isolate the Left Main AC by selecting the generator control switch to OFF and the Bus Tie switches to OFF; SATCOM is now dead. What else happens……….the Backup generator kicks in automatically to supply the Left Transfer bus. Here’s what’s so spine chilling; if you now simply reach up and select the Backup Generator switch to OFF………..you now lose Left transfer as well. The CVR is gone! I couldn’t believe how easy the CVR was to isolate!
To recap;
Left Gen Control to OFF
Bus Ties to OFF (Isolate)
Left Backup Gen to OFF.
I now firmly believe your mystery reboot was Left AC power being switched back ON……….. after something that had occurred that the perp or perps didn’t want any possible evidence of on the CVR……whatever was being hidden was done by around 1822; AC back to normal.
Gysbreght notes that the Factual Information also identifies the location of the CVR as Electronic Equipment Rack, E7, in the aft cabin above the ceiling, and suggests: “Later [the perp] could have opened Electronic Equipment Rack E7, physically pulled the SSCVR power supply plug from its socket, and then gone back to the MEC to restore power to the Left AC bus.”
Oz has his own theory: “If you are thinking why the hell you would turn Left AC/Left transfer back on? Flight deck temperature control comes from these…”
There’s a precedent for a suicidal airline pilot depowering the black boxes before flying a plane into the ocean: the pilot of Silkair Flight 185 appears to have done just that before pointing the nose down and crashing in December, 1997. It’s easy to imagine Zaharie reading the accident reports and realizing he should also figure out a way to disable the CVR before implementing his suicide plan. When the moment came, near IGARI, one can imagine the veteran 777 pilot suddenly flipping various switches while the baffled newbie, Fariq, looked on.
It’s certainly an intriguing scenario, but it is not without its flaws. As Gysbreght notes, “I would expect the Captain to know that the CVR only retains the last two hours and overwrites older recordings.” So if Zaharie planned to commit suicide by flying the plane for hours into the remotest reaches of the southern ocean, he wouldn’t have needed to turn the CVR off: the portion between 17:07 and 18:25 would have been erased anyway. This is not in insurmountable problem, however. Maybe he orginally intended to crash right away, a la Silkair, but then lost his nerve.
I’m not quite ready to declare, as Gysbreght has, “Case closed,” but I have to admit that the CVR idea is fascinating. Great work, Gysbreght and Oz!
Hi All,
Let me throw a crazy question out there. Since we have questionable cargo, questionable crew actions, and a questionable reboot, is it possible all are related to fuel?
If the mangosteens were really kerosene, what is involved in making it available to the engines?
Would the power shutoff be a necessary part of a fuel tank modification?
My guess is that supplementing the tanks midflight would be a task done best with the electricity off.
Ridiculous, admittedly. But a lot more folks can plumb a fuel hose than spoof a satellite signal, and an extra 4600 lbs of fuel changes the equation a bit.
lucy,
I would hesitate though to call Ms. Pardi out of respect, his “girlfriend.” She is a devout Muslim woman, asking Allah on her FB for the strength to get through Ramadan, their holy fasting month which incidentally just ended days ago. She dons the traditional head cover as well. I still don’t think we have a clear cut definition of the friendship and for a Muslim woman to be a public “girlfriend” by our terms attending rallies together would be shameful, if anything she would be another wife if that was the nature of their relationship. (And they can have 4 wives simultaneously if they can support them all equally.) She may have just been a political friend we don’t know. His sister does post to Ms. Pardi’s FB so maybe she is a family friend, so that at least verifies some connection, whether it is romantic we don’t quite know.
What about Nik Huzlan? As Littlefoot says, a guilty Zaharie would be perfect for the regime, it would clear them, Boeing and the mfgrs., the airline, and I don’t think Nik has accused him at all so what is Nik being paid for do you think? I think Nik did say his wife flies with MAS and if he deemed it unsafe he would not let her fly.
Cheryl – In Malaysia you are born a Muslim. They put it on your birth certificate and most conform to varying degrees but for many it’s just a title. Just as many live totally secular lives – with a headscarf on.
Matty,
No other Muslim country is like that I have been too, they are all very strict. Are you saying in Malaysia the Muslim religion is more lax? How can that be?
Matty,
From Mr. Khan’s 4 Corner comments I take it the religion there is exactly how I described it. When questioned about Zaharie and another woman he said as much, “why not we can have 4 wives. His wife now would accept it, we are Muslim.” Religion is religion, how can it vary in Malaysia?
Cheryl – it’s a long way from Saudi Arabia put it that way, and if you want the word Muslim taken off your papers you lose benefits so a lot of people don’t bother. There would be more nominal Muslims than practicing ones. Socially a bit like Turkey which has been secular/Muslim until recently.
JS – I think you might have just sent a few people scurrying off to the technical data. It beats the crap out of landing. I’m under the impression they can pump fuel from side to side so do-able maybe? It messes up a lot of calculations.
JS – transported like this….
http://www.discushatchery.com/275gallontotes.html
Matty & Cheryl
The Muslim community worldwide is as diverse as Christianity. Having lived in Saudi Arabia (the most boring place on Earth) this is the strictest Muslims I’ve ever encountered. I also lived in Iran from 1974 to 1979, graduated high school then went on to work for BHI. During those times while my Father was working for Bell. The point being made here is…the religious point of view is dictated by the church, Mullah’s, etc. To compare Turkey to Saudi Arabia socially is incomprehensible. You can hit a hooka pipe & have a beer in Turkey & BS, while in the SA, you’d be jailed & horse whipped. Iran during the Mohammad Reza Pahlavi times was great. Now religious zealots say different. Islam,varies from coast to coast, ever reminding my Texas buddies. Acceptance.. “They are all not like that”, but just want to live in peace. The “Lone Wolf” thing will be a plague in the times to come, while I’ll preach “Don’t fall for the hatred” That is their greatest want. Install hatred, be it Shia, Sunnie, Anglicans or Catholics.
MH370 was not about religion, but politics..IMO
Chris – have a look at some of the photo’s from Afghanistan from the 60’s – women in tight dresses and not a headscarf in sight thumbing through the vinyl records down at the “mall.” In Bin Laden’s family snaps in the 70’s they are all standing around in purple T shirts and denim jeans. The tide was moving and no one was watching.
@Spencer, wait a minute, what did you say? Zaharie identified himself as Iranian? Where did you get that from?
@All: JS mentioned the possibility to store extra fuel for later use in the cargo bay. That thought crossed my mind often, since it would be an elegant way to beat the fuel budget. But since I never picked up anywhere that something like this is technically feasible I never pursued this idea any further. Can anyone clear that up asap?
I find those mangosteens highly suspicious because it just wasn’t mangosteen season. They must’ve been green and perfectly uneadible. But unless someone explains it better I doubt that you can store extra fuel in the cargo bay for later use without a lot of extra accomplices within the cargo workers for example. You can’t store fuel in crates, it would need tibe placed at a special location in the cargo bay, it would need to be accessible and so on. It’s probably not as easy as carrying an extra few liters of fuel in the back of your car.
To make any great difference in the fuel budget the extra fuel would take up quite a bit of volume. So I doubt it could’ve happened in this case.
@littlefoot,JS
I’ve never accepted the idea of real mangosteens, out of season, but thought more likely to be firearms or drugs or something else of value to terrorists. Fuel is a great idea if workable; then thoughts go back to Kate Tee and the glowing plane…
Chris – Islam = politics but might be one for email.
Littlefoot – the 275 gallon crates I linked to wouldn’t have to be moved, just tapped. It would need an a/c engineer to help out…..
And it would need the kind of effort we saw by the Pakistani Navy breakaways to commandeer one of their ships with the purpose of attacking a US vessel.
Some people will wince but it would make great sense to a hijacker to bring some fuel along. Will happen one day.
@AM2, yes, the “mangosteens” are more likely more pedestrian illicit cargo like drugs, weapons or military technology. There’s probably not enough weight or volume that it could make a big difference in the fuel budget – even if that scenario is possible in principle. But it certainly can’t have lead to a “glowin”glowing” plane. If ignited the plane would blow up within seconds and turn into a huge ball of fire.
@Matty, thanks for the input. I haven’t done any calculations so far, but I will keep it in the back of my mind.
Littlefoot – eight(number pluck) of those crated containers(stackable) represents about 2200 gallons and a top up was all that was needed. It’s just over 8 cubic metres of cargo.
@Gene B, Yes, I have explored this idea in my “Spoof” theory and Victor Iannello has delved further into it as well. The upshot is that that plane would have traveled north instead of south.
@JS, @littlefoot
ad mangosteens – as JS noted that 4600kg of extra fuel might be there, it complicates equations, of course (I never did any, clearly stated this is for ether guys here), as while burning it, plane will be also even lighter; interesting idea.
What waked me now is that I remember FI notes on several pages combiantion of mangosteen+LiON batteries (why? is this some dangerous combination? may the fruit be releasing some flamable gas or what?? on several pages, umm, weird for me)
But most interesting is that at 1606:15 UTC there was logged NOTOC ACARS message about “special load”, where ONLY the mangosteens were mentioned – is this something usual in case of fresh fruit to be not forgoten or so? (I cant imagine term “forgoten” in well organized aviation industry though). BTW people are pointing that it was not season for the fruit, on the contrary, such things are often taken early to be good at arrival time, IMHO).
The NOTOC about them is normal thing or not??
@spencer
interesting you posted a poem – you know, for me, early in the process of seeking, being high on emotions for other reasons too, I started to link some Foo Fighters lyrics to the case (these days, learn to fly, walk, my hero and later also pretender, best of you and even others bands); maybe because back in january we had gig with my friends, where we played many rock classics (me as temp substitue on cajon – I learned about 30 songs only for this single case, but at that time, NOT understanding lyrics at all yet, not listening them at all – it happened later, because of MH370). Jeff has my (crazy) report of timelined findings; it was all about lyrics and peace, in fact, so here borns my confirmation bias and wishfull thinking…
imagine… we, all people, are in global war already for few years;
imagine… the enemies are our own fear, hate, arrogance, stupidity;
imagine… the weapons of mass destruction are media, TV, internet, social networks; imagine… the final counterstrike is in progress for few months;
imagine… the unity, the end of wars, full stop.
Z is soldier; may be we all here too, IMHO.
@Falken, yes, the ACARS message just mentioning the mangosteens is very peculiar.
And funny, that you mentioned foo fighters – and I’m not talking about the rock group but about the original so far unexplained sightings of stranger flying objects which allegedly followed fighter jets around without harming them. They are said to have had an orange glow – now where have I heard that again? 😉
You get the impression that at that night the sky was crowded with “fucking foo fighters” as they were coined originally – until the term got sanitized for public consumption.
@littlefoot
“@Spencer, wait a minute, what did you say? Zaharie identified himself as Iranian? Where did you get that from?”
I think Shah is very popular name in Iran and it’s probably persian name originally, Zaharie probably had iranian roots.
@stevanG
Shah is indeed a Persian word but it doesnt tell much. Many people have persian names and Zaharie (i guess Zaharie is Persian too, comes from the word ”Zaher” in Persian i guess) is one of them.
But i guess Zaharie was only impressed by Iran’s ”anti imperialist” stance.
Matty
I’m with you on matters regarding Islam.. I Think..
Afghanistan was a wonderful destination in the 60’s. After Iran fell, the Russians were quick to invade Afghanistan, after which the Mujahideen & Al-Qaeda were born with congressional support from the U.S. while fighting the “godless” Russians. The Iran that I loved & marveled was turned into a religious state. The U.S. then allied with Iraq, then invading it in 2003. IT WAS the turning point for today’s Mid-East, the fuse was lit in 1979 up & to the point of “Arab Spring”.
Regarding my last post…
I just stepped off of my stump trying to expound, that this is not a religious act. Certainly not a Muslim act. The Shia-Sunni divide is practically as deep & deadly as the Catholic & Anglican (British & Irish).
MH-370 was a political point gone horribly wrong.
@Matty – exactly the crate I had in mind.
I don’t think running a hose and a pump is technically difficult, although someone can correct me if that assumption is out to lunch.
However, my rough calculations suggest that even 5,000 lbs of fuel won’t get a 777 very far, and certainly not enough farther to be part of a plan as it’s probably far easier to get an extra 5000 on the ground.
@JS – You are correct about 5,000 lb not getting you very far. At MH370’s average burn rate of just over 6 mton/hr from 17:06 to 00:15, 5,000 lb of fuel would burn for about 22 minutes or about 160-180 nm.
At take off MH370 was loaded with only about 35% of its total fuel capacity.
If I was the perp and I wanted more fuel I’d go to the flight deck and yell out the cockpit window to the fuel truck loading guy: (please give me a little latitude about being able to talk through the window)
“Hey, Bubba (not his real name), the fuel prices in Beijing are crazy. Please give me an extra thirty-one seven for the trip home.”
Bubba: “Add it to the MAS account?”
Me: “Yup, that’ll work.”
Then, I manually override the fuel gauge and enter 49,700 kg and MAS doesn’t report the extra fuel purchase. Bubba moves far away.
That fuel would add around 2,000 nm to the range. In reality, the FCOM explains how to calculate the cost/benefit of bringing the return fuel with you for destinations with high fuel costs.
Can you provide a reference for that? I couldn’t find it in my copy and would be interested in that calculation.
It is somewhat unlikely you would get away with that. The FMC calculates takeoff safety speeds, flap retraction speed, optimum cruise speeds, landing speeds, etc. for the current weight of the airplane, i.e. zero fuel weight plus the fuel on board. It continuously calculates the fuel on board from the amount entered before takeoff minus the fuel used, and from the fuel quantity sensors in the fuel tanks. A warning is produced if the difference exceeds a certain tolerance. The fuel aboard tabulated in the automatic position reports sent via ACARS is obtained from the fuel quantity sensors in the tanks.
Lauren – good input. I agree it’s far simpler to put it in the tanks.
Now, how is the quantity measured? My understanding was the overall weight was measured by the landing gear. But how is the fuel measured? Does ACARS send individual tank amounts? Could ACARS have been fooled up until 17:21, at which time it was turned off?
It seems to me that only a tank sender could reconcile the actual fuel quantity. Any measurement of the overall takeoff weight could be altered simply by lying about cargo weight.
So under what circumstances could the plane be carrying more fuel than reported?
Gysbreght – My mistake. It was not in the FCOM but in FPPM Number D632W005-WY084, which is for GE Engines. I would expect the principal to be the same for RR Engines. FYI, it’s called Fuel Tankering and suggests a price ratio of 1.110 for a 2000 nm trip. The way I read that is if the fuel at the 2000 nm distant destination is more than 11% more than the the price at the origin, it is more economical to bring the fuel required for the return leg with you.
@LaurenH,
Thank you. The numbers you quote seem about right and would be similar for RR engines.
@IR1907
“i guess Zaharie is Persian too, comes from the word ”Zaher” in Persian i guess”
Really ? That´s interesting…..
The last commentary “Z” did on FB was about a scene on his panasonic 3d projector what looks like a film tear, and after that, all his actions ended on FB forever.
The last known direction of MH370 was straight ahead to India. Let´s look what this guy investigated about “Zaher” und “Avatar”…..
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.allmystery.de%2Fthemen%2Fgg110370-657%23id13353038&sandbox=1
Another coincidence !?
The question is: Did Shah thought he was a Hindu avatar (Vishnu respectively Narayana who came out of the water) who would be reincarnated ?
Was “Z” in India sometimes before March 2014 and made this photo who looks like two grave stones (in symbolic form one for his FO and one for himself ?)
I know, that´s a completely crazy theory but who knows ? 11 kilometers in the northwest is the Mangalore Int. Airport. Maybe he flew to this airport in the past and visited the church of St.Michael the archangel and made this photo for some special reason ?
clutching at straws…
JS – a gallon of kero weighs 3.09 kg, the crates are 275 gallon x 8…..gives nearly 15,000 pounds of fuel or just over an hour according to Lauren.
JS – putting on my devious hat and going down the sophisticated spoof tangent: I would be unplugging my dodgy satcom about an hour or so before I reached my destination to further confuse the searchers/investigators and a fuel stash means you can mask that capability. If it’s in the tank all the sums change.
Matty, now we’re talking about 8 palettes. That both raises the complexity but also increases the travel distance to something worthwhile.
The only reasons to use fuel out of a makeshift tank are:
1. The main tanks don’t hold enough
2. It’s easier to grease the cargo guy than the fuel guy and you really want the fuel
3. You don’t want the computer and the authorities to know how much you have.
Kind of like keeping $100 in your wallet but $20 in your shoe.
The probability, though, should be compared against other options for extending the plane’s range for any given motive. If the motive is to save MAS money, obviously this is a non-starter. If the motive is to take the plane to Antarctica without being found, this might be your best bet.
Slightly different from the range of spoof possibilities as those hide the plane but don’t extend the range.
One final point – the pings, of course, don’t rule this out, since the plane still isn’t where the models predicted. One cannot use a theory that failed as proof that an untested theory is wrong.
Antarctica is a very bad place to hide anything of 777 size.
JS – 8 pallets was my ball pluck figure at the outset. If you have the ability to take one and fudge the cargo list – as they do often I suspect – then you could also do more? I went for eight so it would be a meaningful qty and even then it’s under ten cubic metres.
But getting inside the perps head, what chance really that the final ping was the end point of the excursion, if it was a sophisticated excursion? A fuel stash destroys all the sums and takes it well away from where anyone will look for you. It’s what I would want as a crook.
Agreed Matty. 8 is a good guess.
Another possibility is that more fuel can open more termination points even along the 7th arc. Not by much, though, because we still have performance limits.
http://www.taringa.net/zaharie7772/informacion
I think Spencer might be referring to this Sim discussion site, Taringa, that Zaharie was briefly a member of, based in Argentina. He identifies himself as being Iranian. Which is a strange joke for a senior captain to make, if that is what he was trying to do.
Cheryl, I believe that their relationship was romantic, not just friends. He also messaged her constantly.
There is nothing wrong with having multiple wives — but i feel all wives/gf’s should be investigated as thoroughly as the first wife and family. And compensated by MAS too if they are widowed with young kids.
Even if you are right, and they were merely friends — the amount of time they spent together, frequently working on political issues, would surely give a clearer idea of his mental state or stresses? And why are pictures of them together being erased online?
But what’s the point anyway –the Malaysian criminal investigation is a complete joke, and they compulsively lie about everything. Including the fact that a 4th man went to the airport with the 3 Iranians.
The Shah’s Indonesian maid refused to speak to the Malaysian authorities, which is why the Indonesians got involved to help interview her. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Indonesians are telling the truth.
I have an entry level question for whoever – can the satcom be depowered/powered back up simply by popping the roof panel and accessing it physically?
Sure…
Along with the curly crust, we all enjoy it.
@JS,
“someone can correct me if that assumption is out to lunch.”
That would have been a very long lunch….undoubtedly liquid involved.
You would have to get in the rear cargo compartment; no access from inside so you’d have to cut your way in.
Once inside you would have to gain access to the freight cans, not much room……more cutting again.
Then you would have to do more cutting to find a fuel tap in point and then cut into it.
If you got that, far you would then need a means of powering a pumping system to get it from the freight cans.
As for the NOTOC on the mangosteens; this is quite normal. Mangosteens are perishable; the crew will select the cargo heat system to either low or off. Similar situation occurs when you send livestock; the crew will get a NOTOC indicating a dog or whatever is on board……..the crew then select the heat to high.
ACARS sends total fuel weight.
OZ
@Lauren H,
“if there was a depressurization, either the Captain or the FO would have descended immediately to 10-12,000 feet.”
They would not descend if they had initiated the depressurization; rather put on an oxygen mask and wait.
OZ
@OZ
thanks for info about cargo temp and NOTOC, it makes sense
@JS, @Laureen, @Gysbreght
so, whole extra fuel thing is speculative too (what isnt here), although quickly flashed idea that mangosteen palettes might be simply empty boxes, so captain might request more fuel, as this is his responsibility(?); I remember that it was first thing I looked for, the wikipedia page about 777, from which I saw two things a) it is probably most realiable plane ever b) having full tanks without PAX it did record over 20000km once; so where it can be depends on the fuel they really had;
@littlefoot
all the eyewitness reports was quite sensational for me; in fact, I never saw article about some 2 fighters or orange glow
sadly, this case will probably never vanish from my mind, together with temporary psychosis I myself inducted by reading articles, watching interviews, brainstorming about it all and watching music videos/lyrics, which occured at some point together; crazy
@OZ – Agreed. I meant in the case of an accidental depressurization, the flight crew would attempt to descend. However, as in the case of the Helios Air incident, the crew didn’t understand or ignored the low pressure alarm and become hypoxic before they could correct the situation. The crew member with the oxygen mask didn’t know what to do next.
If MH370 suffered intentional depressurization, the perps could have shut down the AES and then donned oxygen masks before initiating a method of depressurization. Maybe after an hour the perps ran out of oxygen and become hypoxic. A crew member on a longer lasting oxygen supply turned the AES back on, closed the outflow Valves and turned the a/c toward an airport to the south, but then fell into unconsciousness before being able to use the radio?
OZ – sounds like my kind of lunch.
But why would they need to be in the rear cargo hold? Is the front hold unable to accept containers?
look under 5)
https://www.yahoo.com/travel/9-terrifying-things-that-will-make-you-think-twice-124648809152.html