By Victor Iannello
Don’t be fooled by claims of the red tape causing the delay in the determination of the provenance of the flaperon.
Boeing and the NTSB were parties to the investigation when the flaperon was first brought to Toulouse. It is very unlikely that the Spanish subcontractor ADS-SAU did not immediately turn over all documentation when requested by Boeing. The investigators had to know soon after the start of the investigation what the provenance of the part is, whether or not that determination was made public.
I have said before and continue to believe that there was an attempt to delay the release of the results of the investigation in parallel with planting a seed of doubt regarding the provenance of the part. Just look at the series of events this week. First the claim that Spanish vacation schedules have delayed the identification of the part. Then the claim that the identification was not possible. This was followed by the claim that the flaperon was certainly from MH370.
The pattern of leaking contradictory or false information to the media from off-the-record sources continued in full force this week. I believe this is a story in its own right that should be getting a lot of attention. Perhaps when enough journalists are made to look foolish by reporting contradicting statements, their “reputation instincts” will kick in and compel them to dig deeper.
We who are following this incident should demand that more facts be fully disclosed. Technical reports should be released so that we are not parsing statements from a judge-prosecutor to understand the true meaning of what was written. And journalists should not blindly report statements without attribution.
IR1907, if you’re so well versed with etiquettes you might do it properly:
“Mr. Iannello” or “Ms. Crowe” might do nicely, even if not quite compatible with the tone of this blog.
Where I come from addressing people directly only with their last name is beyond rude. But maybe you aren’t aware of this.
@ Victor, Jeff, ALSM, Exner & alike.
A big Howdy from Texas & keep up the good work.
It’s been a highly educational experience these many month’s.
BTW….I still think that the flaperon was torn loose during a controlled landing into the SIO.
@ gavin and all others that flaperon was in the water for some 14-15 months…..one thought came to mind (not having scrutinized the photos very closely) is the amount of boat traffic that might have made contact with this wing part…causing damage of varying degrees….propeller damage, ramming damage, pirates shooting at it for target practice….etc…etc…etc…
You’re beginning to sound like a broken record. In your simulator exercise the plane turned right, so why is it now turning left? Ah, I see, you changed the trim setting from right to left. Why would the bank angle and speed become extreme? Why would anybody deliberately mistrim an an airplane the way you did the perfectly symmetrical simulator?
@ EVERYBODY…..(except Susie crowe)…..one of these days (i do hope) she will indeed wake up on the right side of the bed….. and we’ll get some “complimentary and positive” feed back……maybe jeffrey will put her in the penalty box for a while…..
@IR1907,
In a democratic system citizens are not supposed to just pay and obey like in the totalitarian regimes. They have a duty to be critical and stand on their right to get full information. How else can they have an opinion in matters of public interest?
Your McCarthy style attack on the best MH370 data analyst seems very strange. Can you please reveal if you have personal interests in this matter?
@ jeffwise………………as the gate keeper of this blog i would greatly appreciate your laying out some parameters…some protocol direction for us to follow .maybe listed in numerical order…1 thru 10 or so ..from scenarios based on facts (evidence…or lack thereof..) to some idea that is going to lead in the ultimate discovery of this airplane, and the entombed bodies, along with the evidence contained in the black box’s….a lot of techno-babble is fine , but what the heck is the point…state the point people….the where….is the point…what is all the talk going to get us ….where…. where….where…? ? it’s somewhere out there ..right now…on the bottom… We will find it, i promise that….maybe one of us has the answer…and doesn’t know it yet…or their “crazy” (not really) idea might just, maybe, incite…inspire someone with an idea…that might be the “BIG WOW”
@alsm
“When the smoke clears, I expect to find that the flaperon was definitely from 370, it separated in-flight at an altitude low enough to have generated a high speed following fuel exhaustion, but still high enough to decelerate to a flaperon terminal velocity before impact, around 80 mph. ”
but what happened with the rest of the plane in that case? Debris field would be huge and easily spotted by sat. surveillance
Preface: touting conspiracies with no regard for science/plausibility: counter-productive. Using science to test the plausibility of many theories (including those involving conspiracies): productive. I pledge never to engage in the former – nor ever to be bullied away from the latter.
@Victor: two left-field questions:
1) you posted having computed endurance was available until 1:15 UTC (this surprised me, but I defer to your expertise). Apologies if this is asked and answered, but: what is your maximum endurance time (UTC), speed, and altitude?
2) might hijackers who had DG as their target want to…
A) approach from an unexpected direction
B) approach at an unexpected time
C) fly “dark” (all comms off)
D) navigate via surface features (due to C) – eg nearest island
E) wait until sunrise before attempting D?
Even if your answer to 1) rules out endurance to DG, 2) remains worthy of plausibility assessment: if we’re throwing out the ISAT data, we get to land and refuel. Other possibilities include off-record extra fuel loaded at KL, or an error in the hijacker’s own fuel calc – though neither of these seems plausible to me).
Thanks much.
Yikes! I go for a walk and come back to this. People, courtesy and respect have been the hallmarks of this blog. I don’t agree with everyone here to be sure, but let’s keep things in bounds.
Victor is rock solid IMO.
Getting back to the BEA. I too am annoyed by the pace of their investigation. It is what it is, and there is nothing to do but wait. I am not qualified to venture an opinion relative to the flaperon condition or the surface organisms. I will embrace whatever the BEA concludes when they publish their findings.
I’m not confident that the current search strategy will find the airplane, because it still doesn’t take into account that the airplane may have continued on a southern heading more than 100 NMi after fuel exhaustion. To cover that possibility, the width of the search area needs to increased considerably, and to search that larger width within the current budget it must be centered about the most probable location on the 7th arc. It is therefore necessary to re-evaluate the center location in the light of the new evidence: the arrival of the flaperon at La Reunion.
Ron,
The ”best MH370 data analyst” (only competent ones are already in the official investigation) happens to be a conspiracy theorist with comprehension problem. Mr.Victor’s handling of MH370 reminds me of the 9/11 deniers.
Just saying.
@Brock McEwen: Rather than repeat the past discussion, please see it on this page:
http://jeffwise.net/2015/06/11/where-do-we-think-mh370-went/comment-page-4/#comments
In that discussion, you will see that Gysbreght has performed similar calculations prior to me with similar results. Lauren H also agreed with my calculations.
I don’t subscribe to the DG theory, although I do believe there was enough fuel. I will leave it to you to use these results to answer your questions under (2).
@IR1907,
This is a professional forum not a social one, people are supposed to contribute technical insight with every comment not float their frustrations.
Trolling in this forum had two ugly characteristics:
* Talking from a position of (false) authority and demanding that others accept your point of view. I call this assuming false authority.
* Trying to intimidate good contributors by calling names.
It sometimes seems the trolling is a cooperated effort and the trolls change nicknames.
Let me ask you again: Can you please reveal if you have personal interests in MH370?
@ anybody just a quick question…why is this area…(search zones, etc. ) referred to as the south indian ocean..? ? mostly the aprox. center line ( dividing N. and S.) lies along the 37 lat. with 90%, give or take a degree or two, lying north of that line…..more like north-eastern indian ocean…oh, well no big deal…i know where you mean….
@everyone
The perpetrators who diverted MH370 would have had some knowledge of how search teams would go about looking for the debris, including the blackbox of a plane which crashes into the ocean.
Remember AF447 which crashed in the Atlantic in 2009?
The teams that found the black box released a lengthy report on how they went about searching for it for over 2 years.
If I were thinking about making a plane ‘disappear’ over the ocean, this report would give pointers one what one should NOT do in the such an event.
A few things become quite obvious:
– choose a spot in the oceans of the world that is uncharted, untravelled and unobserved
– keep the plane in one piece until it sinks to the ocean (avoid a debris field)
– keep the plane from communicating with the outside world and disclosing it’s location
– keep the FDR and CVR silent, and non-functional
– make sure there are no Americans among the victims
All the facts of the disappearance of MH370 fit the above criteria.
Thanks, Victor. If recorded fuel could be made to last until only a scant few minutes after sunrise, then the scenario I threw out above requires either clandestine extra fuel or a very poor fuel calc by the perp(s), because DG is more than an hour south of KH at that speed.
I was just trying to find a way to interpret the “flight path to an island” info leaked by U.S. officials to Miles O’Brien last month as anything other than disinformation.
You know, if we’re making a list.
@Brock, the rumor that there were flight routes to an island in the Indian Ocean on Shah’s simulator came out over a year ago, in June 2014, in a NY Times article amongst other news outlets. I was always flummoxed that they did’t name the island. It was also reported that Shah had made simulated landings om the Diego Garcia and Christmas Island runways – amongst many other runways.
But how can we assess the correctness of these rumors by looking at the fuel budget? What has this to do with Shah’s simulating preferences?
@CliffG
current search area is one of the worst locations in IO to hide debris field
Another rumor in the article (unfortunately even news from outlets with a fairly good reputation can only get classified as rumors when it concerns mh370) was that Shah had practiced landings on a short runway of an island. Again, it wasn’t said where and if these runways even existed in the real world. Both runways on DG and CI aren’t that short btw,
Interestingly, if we look at those rumors about Shah’s simulating preferences there’s a fairly striking thing: allegedly he had made simulation flights to an island in the IO; he had practised landings on DG and CI; and he had purportedly practised a fuel-exhaustion run into the SIO. Which means, according to the leaks he practised every scenario currently on the pet theory market – except a spoof and a run to Kazakhstan. He must’ve overlooked that possibility.
@ cliffG very astute…very astute…but…one thing; if they (or was it just one person…with the ability to do all this maneuvering….? ?) were this wordly in their thinking, and planning, do you think they just maybe, might leave the final clue…( maybe a point of symbolic significance on a global level in the middle of nowhere ) which we have not yet discovered (maybe…maybe somewhere out there, someone has stumbled on to this final clue….if they had….can you imagine…i mean this..can you just imagine what they are going thru….trying to get just one person to listen to them….just one person…Now what do you do……FBI…NTSB….ATSB…Malaysia officials…CIA….”listen to me”….”listen to me”….”I KNOW….I KNOW….”…WORLD LISTEN…! !….just nada…go away…you should be institutionalized….leave me alone…right….SURE fella….that’s what will happen…..on a serious note, i think Prof. Plum did it with a candlestick in the library.
IR1907 – I would say that MH370 has been afflicted by politics from the moment it disappeared from the screen, to the tip-toeing around Indon radar, to the present. When you are effectively sitting on the biggest aviation mystery ever it is a given that you must manage the media – and that does not mean a brick wall. When stories shoot around the globe and you remain mute people are going to draw conclusions. As I have remarked before the 9/11 investigation was more open than this and the absence of frankness invites speculation. Compare it to the Lubitz disaster. Prompt transparency by the Germans. No we don’t need live-streaming, just accountability, unless there is some other dimension to this? It’s as if they are trying to make people suspicious. It’s been a hallmark of this disappearance but you aren’t the first cruncher to get offended by any discussion that falls outside of your dry clinical mindset. To Victor’s credit, and speaking for myself entirely, he actually does recognize that there is no plane where they were certain there would be one – and he can crunch data with the best of them.
Matty: very, very well said.
I should add – anyone who flies has a stake in the aviation industry and there is a duty to disclose wherever possible when lives are lost. Under what circumstances would that not be reasonable? That is the sort of territory I have been in, and I take it as a compliment when crunchers roll their eyes at my suggestions. We have always had our share of grumpy old men in this discussion and there are crunchers out there with all blocks out, castles built and standing proudly, waiting for the moment of vindication. When people start talking about subjects that might knock the castle down they get quite irritated. 1907 – that wouldn’t be the year you were born by any chance?? Be assured that was a joke from someone who doesn’t enjoy touching their toes anymore.
@littlefoot
I note your dig at Jeff over the spoof theory.
Whether Jeff still believes this possibility or not, I don’t know, but I’d presume that he just keeps it in the back of his mind as another one of the many possibilities in this bazaar case – in other words keeps an open-mind. I thought his theory was a very good one and was much needed to keep a balance on all this as everyone needs to keep an open mind to ALL possibilities.
I may be opening up a can of worms saying this, but many seem to have forgotten that it took the Authorities/experts a long time to come to the conclusion that 9M-MRO turned left and flew towards the SIO and this was based on I believe 2 or 3 numbers in the data? Who knows, these numbers could still be wrong for some yet unknown reason?
Never in the history of mankind has so much been invested in so few numbers!
I’ve noticed in life, that whoever shouts the loudest in the media gets listened to – be them right or wrong, and then many people take what they then say is Gospel… and anyone that questions it is classed as a conspirator (or the like)!
We have an enormous problem such as this in New Zealand, where people are too scared to speak out against things that are so obviously wrong for fear of repercussions from the pig-hearted. If people speak out, they run the risk of death threats, their houses being burnt down, etc, not to mention being ridiculed publicly by some reporter with an agenda!
Look at the problems en-counted by people like Galileo when he spoke out against the general consensus.
It seems many will never learn from the mistakes of the past…
Why isn’t it treated primarily as a human disaster? There will be a reason – I hope. But people seem by now habituated to the MH370 saga.
@Matty, well said as always. The difference of media management compared to the Lubitz disaster is striking indeed. Especially noteworthy: there were many leaks and unauthorized statements as well. But they all proved to be correct in the end.
As to IR1907, I’d rather guess he’s alluding to an important historic event and not to his age with 1907 😉
@Gavin, you are completely wrong. I didn’t make a dig at Jeff’s spoofing scenario at all. I was simply noting it’s conspicous absense in the alleged assortment of potentially incriminating virtual flight routes in Shah’s simulator.
@Gavin, and I agree with you, the spoofing s enario was important and needed to be discussed. Especially after Victor showed us that it can be done.
Itavia flight 870, a DC-9, made a near-vertical dive in to the Mediterranean starting from FL250. Here is a picture of the reconstructed wreckage of the port wing and fuselage:
http://www.stragi80.it/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/DSC_1637.jpg
There are many related pics available as well (Google is your friend). The outer part of the wing broke off early and descended separately, and it is relatively intact. The inner part of the wing took more of a beating. Don’t know if there is a piece of the wreckage that would bear a resemblance to the Reunion flaperon. Overall, the wreckage is considerably more intact than the Germanwings Airbus impacting the Alps.
I have no idea whether a French investigator would consider this incident to be a “crash” or a “water landing”.
As an aside, even though forensic evidence showed conclusively that the plane was brought down by the detonation of an on-board device in the outer wall of the rear port lavatory, various Italian Courts and commissions sided with conspiracy nuts and concluded that the plane had been brought down by a missile – just in case anyone wonders why I am hugely cynical about an air accident investigation being led by a judge.
@Matty
Very well said (your last 3 posts in particular but as always)
@Brock re: your post September 4, 2015 at 2:26 PM
Thanks for that further detail re: the CSIRO model. I was particularly intrigued to read about Erik van Sebille’s comment on twitter and hope we get more clarification from him too.
@littlefoot
Thanks for clearing that up. That’s the only problem with posts (and text messages). They can often be read two ways.
As you’ve probably noticed, I’m rather defensive of anyone that puts forward a valid possibility whether I agree or not.
There is actually another way that data output from a B777 can be spoofed without any need to leave the passengers cabin, but in light of the recent developments with the flaperon, I don’t think there is a need to go into it here.
I actually believe there was a possibility where there was no need to spoof the data and still go north, but we shall have to wait and see how this latest development pans out.
At the end of the day, I think most people don’t really care whether it went north or south… just so long as it is found so that we can put an end to it and put these poor families minds at rest. You can see the trauma they have had to go through for the last 18 months.
Most of the cases I deal with in this Country, they have had to live with that horror anything from 19 years (last one not found 1996) to all of their lives! Many have gone to their graves not knowing what happened to their family members … and most people just don’t seem to give a damn!
@sk999, your example is the worst you could have come up with for many reasons. There’s hardly a more controversial case as to what brought down the plane. There are many recent rulings that the plane was brought down by an air-to-air missile and not at all by an intern bomb. Wikipedia is not your friend in this case because the versions are completely different from language to language. I consider the German version to be fairly trustworthy because Germany has no dog in the race in this case. And the German version flatly contradicts your point of view, citing many trustworthy sources.
If anything this case shows how controversial a case can be discussed even after decades. And how hard it is to say exactly which faction engaged in conspiracies and cover ups. This case is a brilliant example of conspiracies being alive and well. Simply because some factions must be involved in some kind of distortion, obfuscation or cover up- simply because they can’t be all right. Someone must be lying. The question is: who? It’s not cleared up after all these years. And that’s not a comforting thought.
@Gavin, thanks for your measured response.
@littlefoot
I think sk999 was just trying to make a point of how much was left after a vertical dive…. nothing else.
Littlefoot,
You completely missed the main point of my post, which was that the best way to understand what produced the damage to the MH370 flaperon is to seek out comparable incidents from the past. Experimental evidence v. theory. Itavia 870 has much in common with MH370. For this purpose, what actually brought down Itavia 870 is irrelevant.
As an aside, you are correct that Wikipedia falls short in this case, but I didn’t rely on it at all. Instead, I relied on the Frank Taylor paper:
http://aviation-safety.net/pubs/other/Taylor_paper_Ustica_illustrated.pdf
plus various news stories from 2013.
@Gavin, yes, that’s how he started out. But it’s not a good example because IMO we don’t know exactly to this day what brought down the plane.
And in his last paragraph he took a shot at recent rulings siding with conspiracy nuts. IMO nothing could be further from the truth. This case is so layered and complicated, that it certainly rivals or trumps mh370. But the problem is that every country seems to have it’s own point of view. If you want to learn totally different aspects of the case you can look up the German Wikipedia article and google translate or “mangle” it,as I call it 😉
Maybe it gives you an idea nevertheles of the pitfalls in that case. The long term commenter Cosmic Academy could also tell you a thing or two about that case.
@sk999, I acknowledge that this was your main point indeed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DE8LZcZgn4
Here’s another very interesting one on the flutter test of an A380: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImSuZjvkATw
Note the speed it is tested to!
@Flitzer,
@Flitzer,
Block quote fail above. my fault. I was referring to your mention of the 550mph spiral dive.
Brock,
“Preface: touting conspiracies with no regard for science/plausibility: counter-productive. Using science to test the plausibility of many theories (including those involving conspiracies): productive. I pledge never to engage in the former – nor ever to be bullied away from the latter.”
The problem with this is that one person’s view of plausibility may not agree with another’s.
For example, you believe that unknown influential senior officials are behind the scenes deliberately manipulating the subsea search location, and that the search effort is not being conducted in good faith. This I would classify as a baseless conspiracy theory.
You also believe that unknown third parties are manipulating the search effort in order to prospect for mineral resources rather than search for the aircraft. This I would also classify as a baseless conspiracy theory.
Gavin,
Dennis can speak for himself (rather well in fact), and we have often disagreed, but in his defence I would point out that he has a very long history of making polite and interesting posts. I am personally rather enjoying the assertive flavour of some of the recent ones.
@M Pat
I have no doubt he’s a great guy and assertive is good – so long as it doesn’t chase people away. If it does, it then becomes counter productive.
People generally take time to come around to a certain way of thinking in their own time… if that thinking is correct. Getting frustrated and being forceful makes them go the other way.
@Gavin
It is a generational thing, Gavin. Messaging consists of content and composition. In these PC days a lot of emphasis is placed on composition. Glad to be retired, actually.
Having said that, I do get a fair number of emails from former employees saying they would rather have directness from someone competent than ambiguity from an empty suit.
@M Pat: the two items you describe as my “baseless beliefs” are neither baseless nor my beliefs. The rest of my twenty-page report lays out their basis in fact and logic, and the two “conspiracy theories” you’ve highlighted are never described as my beliefs – rather as possibilities consistent with the evidence. You’ll note my report does not call for anyone to be hauled away in chains – rather, for the same thing Victor is calling for: full disclosure sufficient to lay all such speculation to REST.
But the broader point is that I tried to lay out the facts without passion or bias, and use logic to form conclusions. I am happy to debate politely with anyone who wishes to challenge these conclusions, and keen to improve it whenever errors in either fact or logic are discovered. My e-mail address is on the report, if either you or Jeff would rather we not debate here.
@Dennis,
ALSM published a link to a video clip of one of his SIM tests a few days ago, here and also on Reddit I think. ASI peg get at its maximum.
Similar result in the SIM test done by an Australian journalist months ago, but it can be found with a search.
No time to search today. Got to rush for a train in a minute.
Well said Brock
We literally had a gift wash up on shore, be it cosmic, or otherwise, I mean WHAT ARE THE Odds? It screams…”Don’t give up on us” This piece of evidence might as well be the “Holy Grail”, “Rosetta Stone” of what we seek when pondering the final outcome. Everybody get their shit together & think of the NOK. Push all the political BS aside & concentrate , concentrate, concentrate on the evidence. Fall back & regroup.. & concentrate