A Couple of MH370 Things

There have been a number of interesting developments in MH370 land:

NEW MH370 PATH ANALYSIS by frequent commenter sk999 has impressed a lot of the old hands. Using somewhat different statistical techniques than the ATSB and IG before him, sk999 analyzes the Inmarsat data to assess where the plane would wind up under various autopilot modes. His results generally jibe with his predecessors’ work and add more weight to the idea that if the ATSB really believes that the plane was flying on autopilot-only, they would be better served by searching further to the north along the arc, beyond the limits of the current search box (though not north of Broken Ridge), rather than further away from the 7th arc as currently planned. What’s also notable, in my opinion, is sk999’s very clear elucidation of the problems with the routes that he assesses; for instance, he points out that all of the routes have problems accounting for speed inconsistencies in the 90 minutes between the fifth and sixth ping. These discrepencies are too large to be easily explained away as being due to inaccuracies in the winds-aloft data. Sk999’s frankness about these issues is refreshing; in the past, there has often been a tendency by those describing possible routes to adopt a position of, “Hey, here’s a route I came up with, it works really well, take my word for it.” (I’m probably as guilty of this as anyone.)

NAJIB IS IN TROUBLE and at last it looks like he may have to go. Is it possible that his ouster will lead to disclosures about what really happened in the aftermath of MH370’s disappearance? In a report last year, ICAO offered an uncharasterically harsh assessment of Malaysian government interference in the search process. Among their most glaring sins: allowing the search to proceed in the South China Sea for a week even though the military had spotted the plane turning toward the Andaman Sea the night of the disappearance; refusing to pass along crucial Inmarsat data to Australian officials who were tasked with searching the ocean for the plane; and lying about the determination that the flaperon had come from MH370 (it did, but that hadn’t yet been determined at that point). What the heck??

THE ATSB zinged airline pilot Byron Bailey, who wrote an error-filled article in the newspaper The Australian arguing that the only possible explanation for the disappearance of MH370 was pilot suicide. The ATSB had never before gone after an article in such detail before; they didn’t even touch Clive Irving’s piece in the Daily Beast, which was much worse (but which, on the other hand, was friendlier to the ghost-ship scenario that the ATSB still favors.) Personally I think it’s great to see the ATSB engage with the media coverage in this way; there’s too much nonsense about MH370 being peddled in the general media. Bailey responded to the ATSB critique with a second piece in The Australian.

THE ATSB ALSO perked up my ears with their response to an inquiry from reader Susie Crowe, who asked ATSB spokesman Dan O’Malley whether the Australians had received information from the French regarding their investigation into the Réunion Island flaperon. O’Malley replied, “The ATSB looks forward to receiving the report on the flaperon from the French judicial authorities, once it is completed.” In other words, Australia is spending over $100 million in taxpayer money to dispatch search crews to one of the most difficult and dangerous stretches of ocean in the world, and the French have not even shared with them information about the flaperon that might indicate whether or not they are looking in the right place! To which I might add: !!!!!!

183 thoughts on “A Couple of MH370 Things”

  1. Oleksandr:

    “Why 15 deg ?”

    Because that seems to fit the turn rate in the data posted some days ago. I didn’t look at those data in more detail. If the autothrust maintains airspeed, the groundspeed would vary due to wind. Unless the pilot intervenes, the center of the orbit circle would shift downwind at the wind speed.

    “What hardware/software does keep stability in this case?”

    These are elementary piloting tasks for manual flying, and basic functions of even the most primitive autopilot/autothrust system.

    A/T mode = SPD (the A/T maintains the speed selected on the MCP)
    Roll mode = ATT (the A/P maintains the bank angle at which the mode is engaged)
    Pitch mode = ALT (the A/P maintains the altitude selected on the MCP)
    Pitch mode = FPA (the A/P maintains the flight path angle selected on the MCP, Victor’s variant)

  2. @Oleksandr

    I can’t see why is EY440 connected with MH370. The case with EY440 is still not satisfactorily explained but it doesn’t make it in any way similar with MH370, it was just a regular flight with a little bit of fueling mistake so they had to refuel in Bombay.

    Imagine this now, there is a beheading of opposition leader (do they even have opposition?) in Saudi Arabia and later that day one of their airplanes disappears piloted by supporter of that leader…wouldn’t you connect the dots?!

  3. Gysbreght,

    The turn rate was roughly 0.5 deg/s; not sure how to translate it into banking angle. Yes, I do understand the center would drift, and actually this can be analysed and compared with wind.

    If I understand you correctly, the settings you listed result in a curved trajectory, curvature of which depends on banking angle, while groundspeed and heading would be subjected to wind. If yes, I don’t understand why IG members have denied possibility of such a mode.

  4. @ Olkesandr :

    [quote]
    Any luck with contacting Xaver? As time passes, he will not be able to recall details, and potentially valuable information will be lost forever.[/quote]

    He didn´t reply to date on my 3 messages. Seems he don´t want to reply because he has no idea who i am or he doesn´t take a look on FB anymore. His last public message dates back in 2014.

  5. Oleksandr:

    If the AFDS configuration I posited is indeed feasible (I’m not a B777 pilot), then just about everybody has overlooked it.

  6. StevanG,

    No, I would not. While possible, it is extremely unlikely. Why would someone connect two irrelevant events? Suppose the same day your car wrecks into another car, the driver of which is supporter of current regime. According to your logic he will have sufficient reasons to state you did it on purpose.

    Re EY440. “It was just a regular flight with a little bit of fueling mistake so they had to refuel in Bombay.”

    Fueling mistake?! Regular flight?! Are you kidding me, as Xaver asked Etihad? May be it has nothing to do with MH370, just a batch of coincidences. But why do think it was fueling mistake? On contrary, for sure EY440 had enough fuel (initially). Similarly, you could blame fueling mistake in case of MH370. What is difference?

  7. LouVilla,

    Thanks. That is actually a reason I hoped Jeff or some his contacts in CNN would try to contact this guy. There is a good chance he will Google on “Jeff Wise”…

  8. RE: EY440

    The reluctance of Etihad to shed any light on the reason for the ‘rerouting’ and 50 minutes hold over the Strait, in the face of the inconveniences is caused to the passengers, suggests to me that the company was at fault. Maybe they were late in paying ATC user charges? Anyway, there’s nothing to suggest any connection with MH370.

  9. @Oleksandr

    “Suppose the same day your car wrecks into another car, the driver of which is supporter of current regime. According to your logic he will have sufficient reasons to state you did it on purpose.”

    that’s a very bad parallel…

    we know someone did this with intention, we know he evaded Indonesia and went around, we don’t know exactly why but in absence of better motive I’m willing to bet it was this one

  10. @Oleksandr and LouVilla

    I sent Xaver S. a message with FB too, tried to fill him in a bit and thought it might be an advantage to be german as well.
    But he did not respond.
    I assume, he is not active on FB or he has no interest in the matter.

    Although I do not think EY440 has anything to do with MH370. But it could enlighten us concerning ATC and military Radar reactions to the unintended flightpath of EY440.

  11. Came across this interesting (if unsubstantiated) account of the two US Naval vessels captured recently by Iran: http://theantimedia.org/the-story-you-arent-being-told-about-iran-capturing-2-american-vessels/.

    It suggests that the vessels’ radio equipment may have been jammed the Iranians, cutting off communications. Then their GPS may have been spoofed, leading them off their intended route, and into Iranian waters. Sound familiar?

    “Two boats lost their GPS abilities at the same time, and the Secretary of Defense isn’t sure what happened? A few US outlets, such as the L.A. Times, reported on the other malfunctions during the incident. Both boats lost radio communication and all other communication during the incident. A single vehicle losing its GPS abilities can happen. It’s rare, but it can happen. Two vehicles losing the systems at the same time borders on implausible…”

  12. @RetiredF4
    I am watching entire EY440 story with mouth wide open too, unable to comment…

    OT: how you feel that QF-4 are used now (and will be in next 20 years) as target drones? Fortunatelly, Daesh has no air force, so I wish the pilots to shoot missiles on them only.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nmzSFs_fCY

  13. @Jeff

    From page 3 of your linked reference to the ICAO brief on the SAR response. I should have read it sooner.

    ————————————————————–
    n) The RO had communication with the RCCs in Kuala Lumpur and Canberra, which expressed concern about the management of aircraft within the Australian Search and Rescue Region (SRR). The search aircraft appeared to be under the direction of high Malaysian officials, and not the RCCs. It was not clear that the States involved were actively searching within their airspace under the provisions of Annex 12 paragraph 5.3.1 i). Moreover, the RCCs were reportedly receiving information only from journalists or via ‘diplomatic channels’.
    —————————————————————

    “under the direction of high Malaysian officials”

    “information via diplomatic channels”

    Hmmmm… unusual to be sure. It is not simply the delay while searching the SCC that is questionable. Or the lack of civil/military coordination. When is the last time Obama got involved in a SAR operation?

  14. @DennisW – good find.. may show an insiders’ view on what or how the coordination came to misdirecting the search.

  15. I think most of the evidence points at captain Zaharie. The thing that bugs me with this scenario, is that someone must have accessed the electronics bay to turn off [??]. The electronic bay thing suggests a fire, or some kind of Hollywood movie type of scenario. Apologies if my post is unscientific, but it’s the best I can do. Someone was flying that plane, because it turned at IGARI, it turned at Penang, and it turned at the end of the Malacca Strait. It was under control, so all avenues lead to…the captain [other than the electronics bay]

  16. I’m quite sure some shenanigans were going on during the flight, nobody knows what exactly though.

  17. From the B777 FCOM:

    Automatic Flight – Roll Modes

    ATT – (engaged) – When the autopilot is first engaged or the flight director is first turned on in flight, the AFDS holds a bank angle between 5 and 30 degrees and will not roll to wings level. If the bank angle is less than 5 degrees, the AFDS returns to wings level (HDG HOLD or TRK HOLD). If the bank angle is greater than 30 degrees, the AFDS returns to 30 degrees of bank

    Use of the control wheel to to level the wings disengages the autopilot. Therefore roll mode ATT is not available with wings level.

  18. Hudson – The RQ-170 Drone episode was a game changer and very grudgingly acknowledged in the end. It looks far more complex than jamming some boats in the Persian Gulf? There was always a nucleus of crunchers who made a point of hosing down the potential for such an instance with MH370. And it was always nonsense. Cutting edge defense industries vs some relevance deprived retirees reveling in the intrigue, however well qualified. You get old quick. In the IG we are starting to see the open vs closed minds emerge. Assuming no official search was ever going to be focused on Kazakhstan, what has the BFO study given us so far?

  19. @Oleksandr

    Great work in chasing up EY440 leads!

    @StevanG

    “Imagine… there is a beheading of an opposition leader in Saudi Arabia and later that day one of their airplanes disappears piloted by a supporter of that leader… wouldn’t you connect the dots?”

    Very well put. Its true that the Western MSM spin on this story could very well be different if you just change the country. Saudi, Iran, Russia, even China (?) and “pilot suicide” may have received greater attention than we’ve had with MH370.

  20. Something else…

    Odd tweet last night (maybe others noticed it too). Seems a little trivial but I’ll mention it nonetheless.

    Someone tweeted (mostly in Maldivian so I couldn’t really make heads or tails of it) regarding a comment a Maldivian politician (?) had made, maybe to take a swipe at another politician (?)

    Something along the lines of “If so and so says that… that’s as likely as a plane landing in the middle of the ocean and disappearing.”

    Now I don’t know for sure if it was a political discussion or MH370-related. But subsequent replies revolved around what he meant by ‘landed.’ One person saying he actually meant crashed while another said the opposite.

    But an hour later, tweet had disappeared ?!

  21. @Sajid UK
    You always manage to deliver thought provoking intrigue, thanks for the clever insight. A flippant comment correctly interpreted has the power to unravel things, even the tightest lips may begin to loosen.
    I was blown away by your kindness last month.

  22. @Susie

    BTW, a number of posters have incorrectly attributed the poor Malay MH370 response to cultural factors such as infrastructure, organizational, and training issues. That is pure rubbish.

    Malaysia is far from a third world country. People are not beating drums around campfires at night.

    The reality is that if you check out Malaysia’s world rankings in several categories including economic vitality, quality of life, educational institutions, and most forms of infrastructure, they score higher than most European Countries. Of course, as I tell my Euro friends there is one thing you can say about Europe – it is old.

  23. @DennisW
    Thank you for the link and clarification. My view is not one of lacking ability for the Malay’s, only the superior level of corruption which they feel comfortable operating

  24. @Susie

    In some sense, I feel (retrospectively) like the ISAT data has been a distraction. Like many others, I beat on it pretty hard simply because it was well inside my comfort zone. It has not turned out to be as useful as we first thought, and I doubt the DSTG people will be getting any royalty checks from Springer.

    Time to get back to basic thinking and basic crime solving tactics. That will prove very difficult given the levels (sovereign states) that are involved. If you are powerful enough maybe you really can get away with murder.

  25. I have been bogged down with year-end work stuff but have read the last 3 articles here and glad to be back posting. What have we now, SK999 with a possible terminus more north (bravo SK999) of the current search area, the IG changing some assumptions (good), autopilot roll modes (magnetic vs. true) and curvier paths after FMT being studied, ATSB continuing search in the same area despite no report on barnacle origin findings on flaperon from France, and Najib on the way out. Wow.

    I doubt whether Najib’s ouster would reveal much more. I think the “saving face” and “close to the vest” mentality would prevail. I fault MAS first in this for not reacting immediately amidst the befuddled KLATC and HCMATC, then Malaysia for bungling that night and the first week of searching.

    I still think the Inmarsat data is the best go, the flaperon suggesting the water terminus (especially since the inside looks like it is from MH370), and the assumptions changed. It’s just where in that big, big, vast ocean is it? If not more north, and not outside in the flanks of the current search area, then hello spoofing I guess.

  26. Gysbreght,

    Does this mean AP returns to “HDG HOLD” or “TRK HOLD” if bank angle is less than 5 deg?

  27. Dennis,

    You contradict to yourself.

    You say “Malaysia is far from a third world country. People are not beating drums around campfires at night.”

    Exactly. I told you and StevanG this many times. That is one of the reasons I discarded your motive a long time ago. CI is absurd destination keeping in mind that Malaysia is a lot more advanced in some aspects than US, Europe or Australia. A lot of people on this forum compare Malaysia and Ethiopia (I mean the two well-known hijacked flights), which is absolutely inadequate comparison.

    But you are wrong with regard to the mess and bad organization. A simple example: how could KL passport control fail to detect stollen passports of the two passengers on MH370? They have all the facilities to do it. Or just take a local train to see the mess around… Though still a lot better than in Kathmandu (Nepal), where two policemen cannot agree on how to regulate traffic at a conjunction where traffic light went down; but a lot worse than in Holland, where 3 minutes train delay is a disaster.

    Do remember it took 10 minutes or so to communicate distress signal to coast guard in S. Korea when Sewol was sinking? And another half an hour for coast guard to reach the ship despite it was fairly close to the shore. And following messy actions, when they failed to recognize how many kids were trapped inside. In case of MH370 Malaysians had to dial with international communication, which added a lot more mess. ATC and MAS could not distinguish between projected location of MH370 and the actual one. Do you think on purpose? I think simply because of the lack in training. And there were a lot more examples of poor training, lack of technical knowledge, negligince, etc on Malaysian side, particularly their air defence. But I do not see how their actions can be qualified as dishonest.

  28. Byron Bailey has another crack – From the Australian.

    Pretty clear there was politics in play all along to me and Malaysia is central to it. Figures like ALSM have said they “prefer not to speculate” on the subject of what happened with the pilots but I think you need to if you are in effect saying that the AP went on after the FMT.

    But a query for the hang Shah brigade – if he had a set against the govt and something up his sleeve, did he really need to fly all the way out to the Vietnamese boundary to execute it? If he heads back in dark it’s up to the military radars. The only way to implicate those radars was to fly through them. If he was going to brazenly fly across Malaysia without a transponder when is a good time? It transitions from a civilian matter to a military one the moment he cuts back into that radar space. Psychologically – to me – it makes no sense. From the domestic Malaysian perspective it makes no sense. He was safer heading back across as a plane that ostensibly was MH370 in any case, knowing the Malaysians a little no one in that govt would have given the order to shoot it down – that was never going to happen and he would have known it. He would have also known that there would have been no phone call to Australia to keep an eye out. There are no fighter planes based in WA at all. He knew he couldn’t make himself invisible….so why go all the way to IGARI? IGARI is on the other hand, the likely first chance Hamid had to take the controls.

    Article: Byron Bailey

    Last week in The Australian, Dan O’Malley, Air Transport Safety Bureau spokesman, said the agency was standing by its MH370 theory that an unresponsive crew by hypoxia (lack of oxygen) led to the disaster — this despite overwhelming opinion from experts within the aviation community against this theory.

    The ATSB would have us believe that shortly after commencement of cruise a decompression occurred. They then want us to believe the experienced, well-trained pilots of a first-class airline sat there for over 30 seconds without donning their oxygen masks — which only takes a few seconds — as they have been trained to do many times in the simulator.

    This meant they became incapacitated, leading shortly to unconsciousness and death.

    The aircraft, however, turned left and flew nicely across northern Malaysia. About an hour later, after passing the northern tip of Sumatra, it turned left again.

    After a decompression, the interior of the aircraft would quickly cool to less than -50C — the temperature of the outside atmosphere. Everyone on board MH370 would be on the way to becoming blocks of ice, the same as passengers on a Helios flight that failed to pressurise on a route from Cyprus to Athens at 34,000 feet. So why did the aircraft turn left?

    Since 1903 we have had the joy of powered flight. In the 1930s autopilots were introduced, relieving the pilots of the tedium of flying straight and level for long periods in cruise. They controlled the aircraft in two axes: pitch (to maintain altitude) and roll (to maintain a heading commanded by the pilot).

    The autopilots of modern aircraft have evolved where the aircraft can now fly a track from the GPS without the pilot having to adjust the heading to maintain the required route.

    When MH370 turned left at the north tip Sumatra it must have been commanded to do so by the pilot because an autopilot is just a dumb system that relies on commands from the pilot.

    It does not have artificial intelligence and ATSB and the Civil Aviation Safety Authority know that MH370 would have flown itself to destination Beijing unless someone changed the instructions (in the flight management system) to autopilot when the pilots were suddenly incapacitated — according to their theory.

    I mentioned to a famous Australian aviator last week that the ATSB could not be so stupid as to be unaware of this fact. He replied “yes they are”, a typical incompetent government department.

    I have colleagues from several major airlines and between us we have hundreds of years and well in excess of 100,000 hours flying A380, B777 and B747 aircraft.

    We are disturbed at the theory promoted by the ATSB, which does not have a single shred of evidence to support it.

    We are of the opinion that when the Malaysian government requested the ATSB conduct the investigation of MH370, they decided that the result must not be based on a rogue pilot theory. Otherwise, why would the rogue pilot theory not be considered especially when the head of Emirates, the world’s largest B777 operator, said on German TV that the MH370 flew under control for seven hours and that pilots should not be allowed to turn off communication equipment in flight.

    I have in previous articles pointed out the aerodynamic absurdity of some of the theories and projections put out by the ATSB based on Bayesian mathematical modelling, which is used for stockmarket analysis.

    The ATSB in March 2014 should have asked Virgin Airlines, which has experienced B777 pilots, to project the likely flight path based on known facts, such as fuel on board and upper winds.

    What all this means is we, the real experts, contend that the search zone was way too far north and east of the likely ditching area, which means 22 months and more than $100 million wasted. It’s almost as if they did not want MH370 found before the two-year statute of limitations for insurance claims expires in March 2016.

    Byron Bailey, a veteran commercial pilot with more than 45 years’ experience and 26,000 flying hours, is a former RAAF fighter pilot and trainer. He was a senior captain with Emirates for 15 years, during which time he flew the same model B777 as MH370.

  29. Gysbreght,

    What is your understanding of “If the bank angle is less than 5 degrees, the AFDS returns to wings level (HDG HOLD or TRK HOLD).”? Or this takes place only when AP is engaged?

  30. Matty,

    So EY440 case has one more common thing with MH370. I am wondering why CEO and pilots of Etihad exhibit a lot more interest in MH370 case than any other airline? Why not Boeing itself?

  31. Gysbreght,

    I think it might be possible to transform my CTS model into an “AFDC model. Fig. 6 in my technical note (TN-CTS-Rev1.1) shows quite linear increase of altitude, which means it can likely be replaced with constant RoC. In my model the climb was important not because of its direct impact on BFO, but because of ambient wind conditions, which allowed fitting BTO and BFO. Air speed was not constant in CTS model, but it did not vary much. So I think this may work. I just need a clear understanding how AFDC works.

  32. @DennisW&Oleksandr

    It’s not all about living standard but also about freedoms corruption etc.

    They publically cane young people for drinking beer, they convict opposition leader of “sodomy” so I don’t know how can you not consider it a 3rd world country…in reality they aren’t too far from S. Arabia (which is also rich).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REWPQokR9KI

  33. Oleksandr,

    AFDS stands for Autopilot Flight Director System. If the A/P is not engaged it doesn’t work.

  34. Gysbreght,

    No. In my understanding AFDC stands for Automatic Flight Director System, which is independent on AP:

    wikipedia.org/wiki/Mode_control_panel

    Parts of AP can be disengaged by AFDC.

  35. StevanG,

    “It’s not all about living standard but also about freedoms corruption etc.”

    Have you seen any democratic government, which is not corrupted? I have not. Freedom? I haven’t heard they are lacking in freedom more than any western democratic country.

    “They publically cane young people for drinking beer”

    I can assure you that you can drink beer, wine, and other alcoholic drinks in restaurants and bars. But certainly you can’t do it in front of a mosque. Just respect their culture and traditions.

    ” they convict opposition leader of “sodomy” ”

    Then what? In the US, Europe and Russia a typical conviction is related to personal tax issues when they need to supress opposition. But in Malaysia personal tax is low, so they have to find some other reason/excuse. Someone buys this, someone does not.

    “in reality they aren’t too far from S. Arabia (which is also rich).”

    No, they are very far. Governance, culture and even Muslim religion are all very different.

  36. Oleksandr:

    FCOM Chapter 4. Automatic Flight
    Section 20. System Description

    Introduction
    The automatic flight control system consists of the autopilot flight director system
    (AFDS) and the autothrottle system. Both the AFDS and the autothrottle are
    controlled using the mode control panel (MCP) and the FMC.
    Normally, the AFDS and autothrottle are controlled automatically by the FMC to
    perform climb, cruise, descent, and approach flight path guidance.
    Autopilot Flight Director System
    The AFDS consists of three autopilot flight director computers (AFDCs) and the
    MCP.
    The MCP provides control of the autopilot, flight director, altitude alert, and
    autothrottle systems. The MCP is used to select and activate AFDS modes, and
    establish altitudes, speeds, and climb/descent profiles.
    The AFDCs provide control of the flight directors, and autopilot. Flight director
    information is displayed on the primary flight displays (PFDs). The AFDS does
    not have direct control of the flight control surfaces. The autopilot controls the
    elevators, ailerons, flaperons, and spoilers through the fly–by–wire flight control
    system.

  37. @Okeksandr
    If you are annoyed, I will take some blame for distraction but as MH said to me off-site regarding you, “..someone has to keep the campfire burning….”.

    Your work is critical and few could provide what you do.

    Alternate viewpoints seem vital, whatever their quality (and not unreasonable), pushing us from our comfort zone and hopefully opening up new areas of thought.

    I cannot imagine how it would solve anything if we were all of the same opinion

  38. @Oleksandr

    When you are a carpenter, the whole world looks like a nail. So it is with MH370. We all approach the problem statement from the perspective of decades of prior experience – experience is usually a good thing, but it can also be crippling relative to our objectivity.

    I have no heartburn relative to your efforts or the efforts of the many many obviously very talented analysts who have worked on and are continuing to work on this problem. Carry on. I don’t think it will do any good, but that is just my opinion.

    In my view the ISAT data can tell us two things and only two things with “relative” certainty.

    1> The plane was near the equator at 19:40 flying generally South at speed of around 450 knots.

    2> The plane continued to fly until fuel exhaustion and terminated somewhere very near the 7th arc.

    That is all it can tell us, however, that information is enormously helpful. A back of envelop calculation shows that the ISAT data reduces the search area by some 99.8% relative to the area defined by considering fuel range alone.

    Earlier you stated that you thought the ATSB was doing a good job relative to the conduct of the search. My initial reaction was to wonder how I could get a job where I could get a good performance rating without producing any results. I would come out of retirement to get a piece of that action. I always had managers that insisted on results, and it was generally stressful. You are a funny guy without even trying.

    Relative to whether I think the Malays deliberately obstructed the initial SAR efforts – I do definitely believe that. Radar data is very perishable relative to its usefulness for SAR. The restriction of communication to diplomatic channels speaks volumes. There was no confusion. There was obfuscation and deceit.

    I also believe the Malays have flaperon forensic results from the French, and that they are sitting on that information. Maybe it will be provided in March.

  39. The ICAO briefing provides an interesting note on the ELT beacons in regard to MH370

    “The aircraft Emergency Locater Transmitter that is installed on all B777 (a recent mandate) failed to provide a signal. Apparently this can also be deactivated if the switch is left in ‘reset’ position by the crew.”

    This overturns previous assessments by the interim report (Review of Effectiveness of ELTs, p. 32f.), indicating that the ELTs may simply have failed.

    This could be taken as an endorsement of the sabotage/cockpit tampering scenario.

  40. @Nederland: “The aircraft Emergency Locater Transmitter that is installed on all B777 (a recent mandate) failed to provide a signal. Apparently this can also be deactivated if the switch is left in ‘reset’ position by the crew.”

    If you read the text below the graphic where that is stated (on page 3), it also says (in the key to the graphic):

    “1 – RESET (spring-loaded) – ends transmission of emergency locator signal”

    So, strange that the report states that a spring-loaded switch could be left in the ‘RESET’ position (ie. against spring pressure) – it obviously could not (well, not without some strong sticky tape).

    Also strange that a briefing of this type from an aviation body such as the ICAO would not check facts in lieu of using the word ‘Apparently’ – especially as the next section of text they quote explains it.

  41. Gysbreght,

    “The AFDCs provide control of the flight directors, and autopilot.”

    You said “If the A/P is not engaged it [AFDC] doesn’t work.” Why? It appears that AFDC controls autopilot, but not autopilot controls AFDC.

    Well, regardless answer, what happens if bank angle is less than 5 deg? AFDC forces A/P into either “HDG HOLD” or “TRK HOLD” mode, correct? Finally, what is relation between bank angle and horizontal rate of turn?

  42. StevanG,

    It’s a long story. I did travel a bit, including Malaysia, so my judgement is based on my personal experience with various cultures and nations. Though, as Dennis noted, personal experience results is subjective perception.

    So what is strange in my views?

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