Twitter user @AirInvestigate just tweeted this picture. Thanks to reader Ventus45 for posting the link in comments. This presumable is part of the 1,000-page Royal Malaysian Police report that the Independent Group and others have been sitting on for months.
When Victor Iannello described the contents of this report to me, he implied that the only parts that were interesting were 1) the pages describing the flight simulator hard drive data points in the southern Indian Ocean, and 2) confirmation of the Penang cell-phone tower connection with Fariq’s phone. Apparently there was nothing in the rest of it that suggested any hint of what might have happened during the fateful final flight.
Here I’ve used Google Earth to drop a 32 km radius circle centered on Bandar Baru Air Itam on top of a map of MH370’s flight path taken from the “Bayesian Methods” e-book:
UPDATE 11/12/16: @Airinvestigate has posted a second part of the document on Twitter. He describes it as “parts clipped & redacted.”
Interesting to note that the Malaysian police are on the same page with many of those here in this forum in concluding that the plane was flying in excess of 500 knots and at an altitude of 35,000 to 45,000 feet–very clearly not the behavior of someone looking for an emergency landing spot.
@all
Base station location and 32km range.
http://tmex1.blogspot.com
@Jeff
This unfortunately doesn’t prove the F/O was alive at the time. The question of course is if the phone sent any cued messages such as’fire in E/E bay’, ‘cockpit windscreen failure’ or ‘hijack’. Presumably this was not the case so whatever happened at IGARI must have been quick, really quick.
A voice call demands greater bandwidth and may not have been possible given the distance to the cell tower.
@Jeff
Duly noted that you unequivocally reject that the newspaper arrangement on the window seal video was purposefully and deliberately done.
I am not mistaking your position on this, correct?
If so, feel free to set the record straight.
@Ventus
Thanks. Some of us, by way of a common sense narrative, knew that this was most likely true from first reporting of it. Not a surprising confirmation.
I dunno, man. Does this change any of the specifics of the search area? I’m of the belief that the plane never went down. I’m sure I’ll get dogpiled for this, but the implications of this are kind of a game changer in my opinion.
@all
So the basestation location is very close to 250nm from the last radar contact at 18:22. The time of the call was 17:52. From this we can infer that the average speed of the aircraft between 17:52 and 18:22 was 500 knots ground speed. This speed agrees very well with the BFO value logged at 18:25:27.
This has been around for time…More importantly can this reveal any new evidence into MH370? Sadly not..
As discussed many times before the cell phone connection to the tower is just that..In other words the co pilots phone was on and within range of the receiver tower..Does not imply he tried to make a phone call..Though it does suggest MH370 could have flying at a lower altitude at the time..
Knowing how long the phone connected to the tower is my interest.
How long did the cell connect for?
Another incomplete scrap of information for people to bash their heads against for a while. I don’t think this is manipulated – not at all.
FARIQ PHONE CONNECTION CONFIRMED ????
So how many phones does Fariq own and it could be one of his alt phones ..
@all
Most basestations use three sectors numbered clockwise per the convention below:
Sector Number — Typical antenna pointing direction:
1 — approximately N to NE;
2 — 120° clockwise from 1 — approximately SE to S;
3 — 120° clockwise from 2 — approximately W.
So sector 2 would be approximately S to SE of the basestation.
Said another way, the direction to the basestation from the aircraft would be as follows:
Sector Number — Typical rough direction to antenna:
1 — South or SouthWest of the cell phone;
2 — West to NorthWest or North;
3 — East.
Makes sense that the aircraft connected S to SE of the basestation.
If the co-pilots phone connected, we should assume that Shah’s cell would connect as well, right? Is there any data on this?
My reconstruction of the flight path using Figure 4.2 of Bayesian Methods predicts a position of lat=5.233, long=100.296 at 17:52:26. However, the digitized radar track from Fig 2 of the ATSB report [I use the Aug 18, 2014 version of the figure] passes South of this position. If I assume that the longitude is OK, the digitized path has a lat=5.206 at this location. The former is approx 10.4 nm from the cell tower, the latter is 12.0 nm away. [I use a position for the base station of lat=5.406, long=100.302, eyeballing off skyvector along with Google maps but I might be a tad North.] Either location is well within the 32 km range of the base station.
@Ventus45, Thank you for posting those links and will definitely have a look:). Thank you.
@CF, @Dennisw, If indeed it was Fariq trying to connect, the question is, why didn’t 238 other PAX try and do the same? The Chinese love their sophisticated gadgets and toys, many carry more than 1 phone. Thanks for posting the maps Dennis, lets stick to our guns!
@CF, @DennisW, Apart from Fariq, 238 other PAX had phones as well. If Fariq did try and make a call, it begs the question why none of the other PAX did. The Chinese love their sophisticated gadgets, many having more than 1 phone. Thanks for posting those maps Dennis, let’s stick to our guns on this one 🙂
@keffertje
Probably the biggest reason is cellular protocol compatibility (CDMA versus LTE). Celcom is mostly 2600MHz LTE. Most Chinese phones operate at 2500MHz LTE or CDMA or 1800MHz GSM (legacy). My guess is that most Chinese visitors to Malaysia rent a phone when they get there if they want mobile service. When I traveled to Korea, China, or Japan, my US GSM phone was not compatible with any of those countries.
@DennisW, I forgot about that, since my phone pretty much works everywhere now. But there was a time I had to rent one in Asia due to incompatibility.
One possibility is Fariq never turned his phone off at start-of-flight. I have alluded that his prior tendency to invite strangers to the cockpit might suggest a certain lack of discipline. Perhaps this could be checked from prior flights.
If the phone was turned on by Fariq during the flight, then it sadly feels like he was locked out of the cockpit during a depressure event. How would he know to put on his phone at high altitude though?
Tends to confirm the flight went over to the Malacca St whereas some (in the minority) reject that flight route as faked radar data.
@Tbill
A depressurization event did not take place. The 18:25:27 BFO is too perfect to include a temperature change associated with depressurization. Also the phone connect required the plane to be quite low, maybe 10000′ or thereabout.
@keffertje
Perhaps because all the other pax were dead. When you plan on stealing an aircraft and disappearing into the SIO, the FIRST priority would be to effectively neutralize any and all potential threats. This would by necessity mean murdering everyone on board.
What is likely is that Fariq realized how high the stakes were more quickly than the others and managed to squeeze off a desperate phone call that the tower received.
Lets remember that the original reports stated the call was to his mother (IIRC). Or at least that there was a CALL.
Just a thought.
@Dennis
I think your timeline is off. We (or at least me) are talking about a depressurization around IGARI, not 18:25.
@matt
Makes no difference. The single oven oscillator would be screwed no matter where the depressurization took place.
Plus that, Shah never intended to harm anyone. His motive was to negotiate, not to murder and disappear.
@Dennis
I don’t see why a depressurization would necessarily impact the crystal electric furnace temperature for the BTO transmission, unless you have airline industry knowledge about that situation. I assume it is on temp control and well insulated. Even if there is an effect, the event could have been over and back to normal pressure by 18:25
@ventus
You are correct, my number was wrong for the effect of altitude on sunrise time which approaches 20 minutes at FL400.
Question:
How Much Earlier is Sunrise on Mount Everest Due to Elevation?
Answer:
The greatest sunrise and sunset elevation effect on Earth is on Mount Everest (at 27.988056 N, 86.925278 E as seen on the Direction to Yerushalayim Map). With an elevation of 8,848 Meters (29, 029 feet), sunrise would be up to 15 minutes and 31 seconds earlier on Mount Everest than on sea level. The range of the effect is from 15 minutes and 31 seconds on June 22nd, to a “low” of 13 minutes 41 seconds earlier on March 18th.
@TBill
I’ve spent a lot of playing with oscillators of all types. Everything from 700 yen cheapies to $20k cesiums. You have no idea what you are talking about.
@Matt, Sending secret messages has been aound for centuries. As such it is not inconceivable that someone could hide a message by making a video. Deciphering many of those messages is near impossible if you do not have the code. ZS video’s are perhaps weird but trying to find something in them is like trying to read tealeaves. Also, I am convinced experts in this field have looked at the videos and found nothing in them or we would have read about it in the news. There are so many attention seekers out there that anyone with expert knowledge on secret coding would have said something and tried to peal the onion. For me, ZS cannot be ruled out at all, regardless of what others may say. Unfortunately, the evidence against him is circumstantial at best and you can’t nail someone to a cross just because of intuition or feeling. What I do agree with is that there was much more to this man than meets the surface. People fall hook, line and sinker for his feigned innocence which IMHO, he was far from it. To put it bluntly: the guy gives me the creeps.
@keffertje
“Unfortunately, the evidence against him is circumstantial at best…”
Fingerprints and DNA are circumstantial evidence and usually much more reliable than eye witness testimony. The net surrounding Shah is very very compelling.
@DennisW, Innocent people that have been convicted and even sentenced to death based on eye witness testimony alone, is staggering and appalling. I will take the circumstantial any day Dennis:)
@DennisW
I do not, but if you can prove no depressure happened that is fairly significant, if others are in agreement.
Finaly some ‘hard info’ again.
Mentioning that Bandar Baru Air Itam is a location ~3 miles from George Town near the north-east coast of Penang.
Meaning MH370 must have flown straight across the island and not passed south of it.
Big question ofcourse is, was this the only connecting cell-phone and was an actual call made?
The report states they detected a ‘phone number’.
When only a ‘connection’ to the network was made the base station and network only detect a providers ‘password/code’ linked to the specific user.
No ‘phone number’. This can only be related to the providers password/code and a specific user afterwards.
And I think his cell phone must have been held near a window to be able to connect from altitude. If surrounded by metal (fuselage/other) signals would have been blocked mostly (if lying on the floor f.i.).
Suggesting the co-pilot was still alive in any case at that moment IMO.
@TBill
“I don’t see why a depressurization would necessarily impact the crystal electric furnace temperature for the BTO transmission”
The BTO does not depend on oscillator frequency. It depends only on the speed of light and the distances from the satellite to ground station and AES. The BFO on the other hand is a very sensitive function of oscillator frequency. 1Hz in BFO is a fractional part per billion.
A depressurization event would produce enormous temperature trauma on the AES oscillator (even with the insulated and temperature controlled enclosure) which would most likely change its frequency for the useful life of the oscillator. It is not a “disciplined” oscillator, it is free running. Just like a bridge “remembers” every load placed upon it, so an oscillator remembers the time history of the temperature changes to which it is subjected. I do not even believe power was removed from the oscillator between IGARI and 18:25.
@Ge Rijn
The aircraft almost certainly passed South of the Island which is well within the 32km stated range. Passing overhead is very unlikely to be in the antenna pattern of the basestation was is not shaped to anticipate calls from above.
a reference;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Itam
@DennisW
You’re right it could not have been overhead but detected from the South/South-East it must have been well within the edge of the stations range flying above land and quite low IMO.
Possibly this base-staion is located on top of Penang Hill at 833m altitude.
This would make a difference.
I’ll try to figure this out.
@Aaron:
I saw my name in a post where you took a swing at someone else’s (not mentioned) position. It looked like a mistake and I hope it was.
@matt: I’ll continue when I have time. I can’t see nothing in the ice machine though. You need to spell it out.
@DennisW. A thought about other compatible telephones is that there were 50 Malaysians (inc 12 crew) and 7 Indonesians on board, total 87 non-Chinese.
One other about the oscillator is that the SDU operating temp limits are -55 to +70 according to the manual.
@Johan. Earlier you mentioned atheism.
Religion has come up in discussion more generally. The below is an unusual (to me) use of its authority. I might stand corrected but commonly there is no appeal by individuals of various religions as to whether the provenance of such a stricture is indeed Providence.
Which can have its uses if the social good of the many is seen by the State as overwhelming but its implementation powers are constrained.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/11/12/vaccination-is-obligatory-for-muslims-says-perlis-fatwa/
@Johan,
Def not you..Type O, sorry..
@Jeff
You still determine to push the sophisticated hijack theory..Though in theory this is plausible…But as Dennis has said..It lacks motive!!
So you’re quick to shoot holes in other theory’s while supporting a more outrageous theory..
A reference to Celcom coverage and compatable cellphone systems:
http://opensignal.com/networks/malaysia/celcom-coverage
I have worked with avionics for many decades, and IMO pilots with 1000’s of hours flying, are very dedicated and disciplined. The wacko’s get weeded out early in their career’s. Something went wrong and they tried to get back
@Dave, the issue with that theory is “lack of communication”, not using the ELT and M9-MRO flying for another 6 12 hours afterwards, completely intact until terminus. Even Swiss Air111, in a rampant fire and smoke filled cockpit was able to communicate to 2 ATC centers. SAA285, with a fire on board and toxic fumes in the cabin and cockpit communicated to ATC. There are so many examples of communication taking place even under the most dire of circumstances. A Hijacking is still a viable theory, but there is not a shred of evidence, not even circumstantial at this point, to support that. But this may still come….
@DennisW
I think you took your radius a bit too wide (almost double).
The island of Penang is roughly square ~35km/35km.
But still from Air Itam it would cover the south coast and ~10km beyond I agree.
But the ‘FILAM’ base station seems to be in the subburb of Air Itam surrounded by hills.
Not on Penang Hill.
Which would probably limit it’s range to the south and west.
32km would be the maximum range without big obstacles (hills) in the way towards mainland Malaysia IMO.
@keffertje, I realize that, however there are redundancy limitations. In the event of power or inverter failure the aircraft will reconfigure and pilots may find it difficult to react, both have to work together, and one was very junior.
@DennisW
Thank you for the explanation about Inmarsat ping data possibly suggesting no depressure at IGARI. I would just say there was a recent Reddit discussion about depressure at IGARI. VictorI was active in that discussion, and he did not take a position that the ping data suggested no depressure event. Victor was mainly saying MY is not disclosing the raw radar data that might allow a better judgement.
Sadly, it’s quite hard to imagine a rouge pilot event that does not deal with the PAX issue. I suppose a band of HiJackers could control the crowd.
@Johan. Also about the above, this might set the scene for Malaysian non-Muslims.
@keffertje, I agree. however there are redundancy limitations, if there is power or inverter failure, the ac re configures. It requires 2 experienced pilots to react in a set procedure, 1 would not cope
@DennisW
I meant ‘FARLIM’..
It’s just another name for the subburb Banda Baru Air Atim.
And the name of big City Mall with a Celcom-office located there.
I assume the cellphone tower is located at the same place probably on top of this City Mall.
forgot the reference again.. :
http://demo.servicecenter.com.my/telco/celcom-service-centres/celcom-blue-cube-all-season-place
There’s another tower-map tool here.
http://www.cellmapper.net/map?MCC=502&MNC=19
Interesting topography around here. High ground (400-700m) from N to SW (anti-clockwise). Hills to the S are max ~400m (and a bit further from presumed tower location).