This article originally appeared in New York magazine on Wednesday, March 11, 2026.
At the opening of the air war against Iran, the U.S. and Israel won a massively one-sided victory that left Iran’s defenses in tatters and much of its leadership dead. “We achieved air superiority within two days, if that,” says Mark Gunzinger, an analyst at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. But just because a war starts well doesn’t mean it will end that way. “The enemy gets a vote,” as former secretary of Defense James Mattis liked to say.
Within hours of the opening salvos, Iran responded with barrages of its own, though of a different nature. Its air force neutralized, Iran turned to waves of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Though these were cheap and lo-fi compared with U.S. weapons, the Iran counterstrike took a surprisinglypainful toll with a single drone killing six American soldiers at a base in Kuwait. Amid the confusion, a Kuwaiti F-18 fighter jet reportedly shot downthree U.S. F-15 fighters, the most ever lost in combat. By the second week of the conflict, Iran had also destroyed some of America’s most sophisticated radar systems, each of which costs $500 million, and taken down 11 hi-tech Reaper drones with a total cost of $330 million.
At the same time, Iran was going after civilian targets in the region, raining down drones and missiles day after day on Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to targeting U.S. military bases in those countries, it went after critical oil-production facilities, desalination plants, data centers, and logistics hubs like airports. On Tuesday, the UAE shut down the Ruwais oil refinery, one of the largest in the world, following an Iranian strike. Iran’s most impactful measure has been to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices soaring around the world.
In short, while Iran has been all but helpless at the game the United States and Israel were playing, it has a playbook of its own: dragging the U.S. into a type of warfare very different from any it has faced directly. This new kind of battle space, which has evolved at hyperspeed during the four years of war in Ukraine, effectively tips the playing field in favor of the underdog. “The Iranians had a plan all along, and now they’re going out and doing the plan,” says retired F-16 fighter pilot John Waters. “They’re striking back.”
Continue reading We’re in a New Kind of War